#!/bin/python

import random
import subprocess
import time
import sys
import re
from urllib import urlopen
from worker import Worker
from math import log
import elementtree.ElementTree

statenames=['AL', 'AK', 'AZ', 'AR', 'CA', 'CO', 'CT', 'DE', 'DC', 'FL', 'GA', 'HI', 'ID', 'IL', 'IN', 'IA', 'KS', 'KY', 'LA', 'ME', 'MD', 'MA', 'MI', 'MN', 'MS', 'MO', 'MT', 'NE', 'NV', 'NH', 'NJ', 'NM', 'NY', 'NC', 'ND', 'OH', 'OK', 'OR', 'PA', 'RI', 'SC', 'SD', 'TN', 'TX', 'UT', 'VT', 'VA', 'WA', 'WV', 'WI', 'WY']

htmlfmt = "%s:  <span style=\"color: #0000FF\">%s</span>"
ttyfmt = "%-10s: %8s"
def fullrecalc(fmt=ttyfmt):
    global probs
    probs=intradelist(statenames)
    return montehyp(probs, [], [], fmt)

baseurl = "http://www.intrade.com/jsp/XML/MarketData/ContractBookXML.jsp?timestamp=0&depth=0"
COUNT = 40
def intradelist(statelist=statenames):

    xprobs = {}
    contracts = rids.keys()
    for i in range(0, len(contracts), COUNT):
        if not i: time.sleep(3)
        url = baseurl
        for st in contracts[i:i+COUNT]: url = url + "&id=%s" % st
        #print url
        #print len(rids)
        data = urlopen(url).read()
        tree = elementtree.ElementTree.fromstring(data)
        for contract in tree.findall('contractInfo'):
            conid = contract.attrib['conID']
            price = float(contract.attrib['lstTrdPrc'])
            xprobs[rids[conid]] = price
    
    #print xprobs

    probs = {}
    for st in statelist:
        dprob = xprobs[st, 'DEM']
        rprob = xprobs[st, 'REP']
        if dprob or rprob:
            prob = dprob * 1.0 / (rprob + dprob)
        else:
            prob = 0.5
        probs[st] = prob
    return probs

def montehyp(realprobs, obamastates, mccainstates, fmt):
    dwins=0
    rwins=0
    ties=0
    errors=0

    probs=dict(realprobs)
    stateslist=list(statenames)
    stateslist.sort()
    obamastates=list(set(obamastates))
    mccainstates=list(set(mccainstates))

    nonstates=[]
    for i in obamastates+mccainstates:
        if not (i in name):
            nonstates.append(i)
    if nonstates:
        return "The following are not states."+str(nonstates)

    if(set(obamastates).intersection(set(mccainstates))):
        return "Duplicate states in lists."

    for i in list(set(obamastates)):
        probs[i]=1
    for i in list(set(mccainstates)):
        probs[i]=0

    ev=[0.0 for i in xrange(539)]
    for i in xrange(539):
        ev[i]=0.0
    ev[0]=1.0
    for j in stateslist:
#        temp=list(ev)
        for i in xrange(538,-1,-1):
            if votes[j]<=i:
                ev[i]=probs[j]*ev[i-votes[j]]+(1-probs[j])*ev[i]
            else:
                ev[i]*=1-probs[j]

    pdem=100.0*sum(ev[270:])
    prep=100.0*sum(ev[:269])
    ptie=100.0*ev[269]

    return record(pdem, prep, ptie, fmt)

def display(n):
    if n == 0: return "0% (inf)"
    if n == 100: return "100% (inf)"
    if n > 99.99:
        ndig = round(log(100-n, 10))
        return "100%% (%d)" % -ndig
    if n < .01:
        ndig = round(log(n, 10))
        return "0%% (%d)" % -ndig
    return "%.2f%%" % n

def record(pdem, prep, ptie, fmt):
    log=open("odds.log", 'a')
    print >>log, time.time(), str(round(pdem,1)), str(round(prep, 1)), str(round(ptie, 1))
    log.close()

    dstring=fmt % ("Obama", display(pdem))
    rstring=fmt % ("McCain", display(prep))
    tstring=fmt % ("Tie", display(ptie))
    #"Obama:  <span style=\"color: #0000FF\">"+display(pdem)+"</span>"
    #rstring="McCain: <span style=\"color: #FF0000\">"+display(prep)+"</span>"
    #tstring="Tie: <span style=\"color: #888888\">"+display(ptie)+"</span>"
    

    if pdem>prep:
        if pdem>ptie:
            if prep>ptie:
                return dstring+"\n"+rstring+"\n"+tstring
            else:
                return dstring+"\n"+tstring+"\n"+rstring
        else:
            return tstring+"\n"+dstring+"\n"+rstring
    else:
        if prep>ptie:
            if pdem>ptie:
                return rstring+"\n"+dstring+"\n"+tstring
            else:
                return rstring+"\n"+tstring+"\n"+dstring
        else:
            return tstring+"\n"+rstring+"\n"+dstring


votes = {}
votes['AL'] = 9
votes['AK'] = 3
votes['AZ'] = 10
votes['AR'] = 6
votes['CA'] = 55
votes['CO'] = 9
votes['CT'] = 7
votes['DE'] = 3
votes['DC'] = 3
votes['FL'] = 27
votes['GA'] = 15
votes['HI'] = 4
votes['ID'] = 4
votes['IL'] = 21
votes['IN'] = 11
votes['IA'] = 7
votes['KS'] = 6
votes['KY'] = 8
votes['LA'] = 9
votes['ME'] = 4
votes['MD'] = 10
votes['MA'] = 12
votes['MI'] = 17
votes['MN'] = 10
votes['MS'] = 6
votes['MO'] = 11
votes['MT'] = 3
votes['NE'] = 5
votes['NV'] = 5
votes['NH'] = 4
votes['NJ'] = 15
votes['NM'] = 5
votes['NY'] = 31
votes['NC'] = 15
votes['ND'] = 3
votes['OH'] = 20
votes['OK'] = 7
votes['OR'] = 7
votes['PA'] = 21
votes['RI'] = 4
votes['SC'] = 8
votes['SD'] = 3
votes['TN'] = 11
votes['TX'] = 34
votes['UT'] = 5
votes['VT'] = 3
votes['VA'] = 13
votes['WA'] = 11
votes['WV'] = 5
votes['WI'] = 10
votes['WY'] = 3

name = {}
name['AL'] = "ALABAMA"
name['AK'] = "ALASKA"
name['AZ'] = "ARIZONA"
name['AR'] = "ARKANSAS"
name['CA'] = "CALIFORNIA"
name['CO'] = "COLORADO"
name['CT'] = "CONNECTICUT"
name['DE'] = "DELAWARE"
name['DC'] = "DISTRICTOFCOLUMBIA"
name['FL'] = "FLORIDA"
name['GA'] = "GEORGIA"
name['HI'] = "HAWAII"
name['ID'] = "IDAHO"
name['IL'] = "ILLINOIS"
name['IN'] = "INDIANA"
name['IA'] = "IOWA"
name['KS'] = "KANSAS"
name['KY'] = "KENTUCKY"
name['LA'] = "LOUISIANA"
name['ME'] = "MAINE"
name['MD'] = "MARYLAND"
name['MA'] = "MASSACHUSETTS"
name['MI'] = "MICHIGAN"
name['MN'] = "MINNESOTA"
name['MS'] = "MISSISSIPPI"
name['MO'] = "MISSOURI"
name['MT'] = "MONTANA"
name['NE'] = "NEBRASKA"
name['NV'] = "NEVADA"
name['NH'] = "NEWHAMPSHIRE"
name['NJ'] = "NEWJERSEY"
name['NM'] = "NEWMEXICO"
name['NY'] = "NEWYORK"
name['NC'] = "NTH.CAROLINA"
name['ND'] = "NTH.DAKOTA"
name['OH'] = "OHIO"
name['OK'] = "OKLAHOMA"
name['OR'] = "OREGON"
name['PA'] = "PENNSYLVANIA"
name['RI'] = "RHODEISLAND"
name['SC'] = "STH.CAROLINA"
name['SD'] = "STH.DAKOTA"
name['TN'] = "TENNESSEE"
name['TX'] = "TEXAS"
name['UT'] = "UTAH"
name['VT'] = "VERMONT"
name['VA'] = "VIRGINIA"
name['WA'] = "WASHINGTON"
name['WV'] = "WESTVIRGINIA"
name['WI'] = "WISCONSIN"
name['WY'] = "WYOMING"

shortname = {}
for k, v in name.items(): shortname[v] = k

#tre = re.compile("\\bLast Trade : .*?([0-9.]+)")
#ure = re.compile("([A-Z.]+)\.([A-Z]+) http://.*conDetailID=([0-9]+$)")
#ids = {}
#rids = {}
#for line in open("intradeurls.txt"):
#    m = ure.match(line)
#    if not m: continue
#    state, party, url = m.group(1,2,3)
#    if party not in ('REP', 'DEM'): continue
#    ids[state, party] = url
#    rids[url] = (shortname[state], party)
#import pprint
#print "ids =",; pprint.pprint(ids)
#print "rids =",; pprint.pprint(rids)
#print
#raise SystemExit

ids = {('ALABAMA', 'DEM'): '416468',
 ('ALABAMA', 'REP'): '416469',
 ('ALASKA', 'DEM'): '416471',
 ('ALASKA', 'REP'): '416472',
 ('ARIZONA', 'DEM'): '416484',
 ('ARIZONA', 'REP'): '416485',
 ('ARKANSAS', 'DEM'): '416491',
 ('ARKANSAS', 'REP'): '416493',
 ('CALIFORNIA', 'DEM'): '416498',
 ('CALIFORNIA', 'REP'): '416500',
 ('COLORADO', 'DEM'): '416505',
 ('COLORADO', 'REP'): '416506',
 ('CONNECTICUT', 'DEM'): '416508',
 ('CONNECTICUT', 'REP'): '416509',
 ('DELAWARE', 'DEM'): '416511',
 ('DELAWARE', 'REP'): '416512',
 ('DISTRICTOFCOLUMBIA', 'DEM'): '416623',
 ('DISTRICTOFCOLUMBIA', 'REP'): '416624',
 ('FLORIDA', 'DEM'): '417861',
 ('FLORIDA', 'REP'): '417866',
 ('GEORGIA', 'DEM'): '416514',
 ('GEORGIA', 'REP'): '416515',
 ('HAWAII', 'DEM'): '416520',
 ('HAWAII', 'REP'): '416521',
 ('IDAHO', 'DEM'): '416523',
 ('IDAHO', 'REP'): '416524',
 ('ILLINOIS', 'DEM'): '416532',
 ('ILLINOIS', 'REP'): '416537',
 ('INDIANA', 'DEM'): '416542',
 ('INDIANA', 'REP'): '416543',
 ('IOWA', 'DEM'): '416545',
 ('IOWA', 'REP'): '416546',
 ('KANSAS', 'DEM'): '416554',
 ('KANSAS', 'REP'): '416555',
 ('KENTUCKY', 'DEM'): '416557',
 ('KENTUCKY', 'REP'): '416558',
 ('LOUISIANA', 'DEM'): '416560',
 ('LOUISIANA', 'REP'): '416561',
 ('MAINE', 'DEM'): '416569',
 ('MAINE', 'REP'): '416570',
 ('MARYLAND', 'DEM'): '416584',
 ('MARYLAND', 'REP'): '416585',
 ('MASSACHUSETTS', 'DEM'): '416593',
 ('MASSACHUSETTS', 'REP'): '416594',
 ('MICHIGAN', 'DEM'): '416599',
 ('MICHIGAN', 'REP'): '416600',
 ('MINNESOTA', 'DEM'): '416602',
 ('MINNESOTA', 'REP'): '416603',
 ('MISSISSIPPI', 'DEM'): '416612',
 ('MISSISSIPPI', 'REP'): '416614',
 ('MISSOURI', 'DEM'): '416619',
 ('MISSOURI', 'REP'): '416621',
 ('MONTANA', 'DEM'): '416487',
 ('MONTANA', 'REP'): '416488',
 ('NEBRASKA', 'DEM'): '416490',
 ('NEBRASKA', 'REP'): '416492',
 ('NEVADA', 'DEM'): '416496',
 ('NEVADA', 'REP'): '416497',
 ('NEWHAMPSHIRE', 'DEM'): '416502',
 ('NEWHAMPSHIRE', 'REP'): '416503',
 ('NEWJERSEY', 'DEM'): '416516',
 ('NEWJERSEY', 'REP'): '416518',
 ('NEWMEXICO', 'DEM'): '416526',
 ('NEWMEXICO', 'REP'): '416527',
 ('NEWYORK', 'DEM'): '416529',
 ('NEWYORK', 'REP'): '416530',
 ('NTH.CAROLINA', 'DEM'): '416534',
 ('NTH.CAROLINA', 'REP'): '416535',
 ('NTH.DAKOTA', 'DEM'): '416539',
 ('NTH.DAKOTA', 'REP'): '416540',
 ('OHIO', 'DEM'): '416548',
 ('OHIO', 'REP'): '416549',
 ('OKLAHOMA', 'DEM'): '416551',
 ('OKLAHOMA', 'REP'): '416552',
 ('OREGON', 'DEM'): '416590',
 ('OREGON', 'REP'): '416591',
 ('PENNSYLVANIA', 'DEM'): '416595',
 ('PENNSYLVANIA', 'REP'): '416597',
 ('RHODEISLAND', 'DEM'): '416605',
 ('RHODEISLAND', 'REP'): '416606',
 ('STH.CAROLINA', 'DEM'): '416608',
 ('STH.CAROLINA', 'REP'): '416609',
 ('STH.DAKOTA', 'DEM'): '416611',
 ('STH.DAKOTA', 'REP'): '416613',
 ('TENNESSEE', 'DEM'): '416617',
 ('TENNESSEE', 'REP'): '416618',
 ('TEXAS', 'DEM'): '416632',
 ('TEXAS', 'REP'): '416634',
 ('UTAH', 'DEM'): '416636',
 ('UTAH', 'REP'): '416637',
 ('VERMONT', 'DEM'): '416639',
 ('VERMONT', 'REP'): '416640',
 ('VIRGINIA', 'DEM'): '416642',
 ('VIRGINIA', 'REP'): '416643',
 ('WASHINGTON', 'DEM'): '416645',
 ('WASHINGTON', 'REP'): '416646',
 ('WESTVIRGINIA', 'DEM'): '416648',
 ('WESTVIRGINIA', 'REP'): '416649',
 ('WISCONSIN', 'DEM'): '416653',
 ('WISCONSIN', 'REP'): '416651',
 ('WYOMING', 'DEM'): '416654',
 ('WYOMING', 'REP'): '416655'}

rids ={'416468': ('AL', 'DEM'),
 '416469': ('AL', 'REP'),
 '416471': ('AK', 'DEM'),
 '416472': ('AK', 'REP'),
 '416484': ('AZ', 'DEM'),
 '416485': ('AZ', 'REP'),
 '416487': ('MT', 'DEM'),
 '416488': ('MT', 'REP'),
 '416490': ('NE', 'DEM'),
 '416491': ('AR', 'DEM'),
 '416492': ('NE', 'REP'),
 '416493': ('AR', 'REP'),
 '416496': ('NV', 'DEM'),
 '416497': ('NV', 'REP'),
 '416498': ('CA', 'DEM'),
 '416500': ('CA', 'REP'),
 '416502': ('NH', 'DEM'),
 '416503': ('NH', 'REP'),
 '416505': ('CO', 'DEM'),
 '416506': ('CO', 'REP'),
 '416508': ('CT', 'DEM'),
 '416509': ('CT', 'REP'),
 '416511': ('DE', 'DEM'),
 '416512': ('DE', 'REP'),
 '416514': ('GA', 'DEM'),
 '416515': ('GA', 'REP'),
 '416516': ('NJ', 'DEM'),
 '416518': ('NJ', 'REP'),
 '416520': ('HI', 'DEM'),
 '416521': ('HI', 'REP'),
 '416523': ('ID', 'DEM'),
 '416524': ('ID', 'REP'),
 '416526': ('NM', 'DEM'),
 '416527': ('NM', 'REP'),
 '416529': ('NY', 'DEM'),
 '416530': ('NY', 'REP'),
 '416532': ('IL', 'DEM'),
 '416534': ('NC', 'DEM'),
 '416535': ('NC', 'REP'),
 '416537': ('IL', 'REP'),
 '416539': ('ND', 'DEM'),
 '416540': ('ND', 'REP'),
 '416542': ('IN', 'DEM'),
 '416543': ('IN', 'REP'),
 '416545': ('IA', 'DEM'),
 '416546': ('IA', 'REP'),
 '416548': ('OH', 'DEM'),
 '416549': ('OH', 'REP'),
 '416551': ('OK', 'DEM'),
 '416552': ('OK', 'REP'),
 '416554': ('KS', 'DEM'),
 '416555': ('KS', 'REP'),
 '416557': ('KY', 'DEM'),
 '416558': ('KY', 'REP'),
 '416560': ('LA', 'DEM'),
 '416561': ('LA', 'REP'),
 '416569': ('ME', 'DEM'),
 '416570': ('ME', 'REP'),
 '416584': ('MD', 'DEM'),
 '416585': ('MD', 'REP'),
 '416590': ('OR', 'DEM'),
 '416591': ('OR', 'REP'),
 '416593': ('MA', 'DEM'),
 '416594': ('MA', 'REP'),
 '416595': ('PA', 'DEM'),
 '416597': ('PA', 'REP'),
 '416599': ('MI', 'DEM'),
 '416600': ('MI', 'REP'),
 '416602': ('MN', 'DEM'),
 '416603': ('MN', 'REP'),
 '416605': ('RI', 'DEM'),
 '416606': ('RI', 'REP'),
 '416608': ('SC', 'DEM'),
 '416609': ('SC', 'REP'),
 '416611': ('SD', 'DEM'),
 '416612': ('MS', 'DEM'),
 '416613': ('SD', 'REP'),
 '416614': ('MS', 'REP'),
 '416617': ('TN', 'DEM'),
 '416618': ('TN', 'REP'),
 '416619': ('MO', 'DEM'),
 '416621': ('MO', 'REP'),
 '416623': ('DC', 'DEM'),
 '416624': ('DC', 'REP'),
 '416632': ('TX', 'DEM'),
 '416634': ('TX', 'REP'),
 '416636': ('UT', 'DEM'),
 '416637': ('UT', 'REP'),
 '416639': ('VT', 'DEM'),
 '416640': ('VT', 'REP'),
 '416642': ('VA', 'DEM'),
 '416643': ('VA', 'REP'),
 '416645': ('WA', 'DEM'),
 '416646': ('WA', 'REP'),
 '416648': ('WV', 'DEM'),
 '416649': ('WV', 'REP'),
 '416651': ('WI', 'REP'),
 '416653': ('WI', 'DEM'),
 '416654': ('WY', 'DEM'),
 '416655': ('WY', 'REP'),
 '417861': ('FL', 'DEM'),
 '417866': ('FL', 'REP')}


def calls(d=.02):
    o = m = 0
    so = set()
    sm = set()
    for k, v in probs.items():
        if v > 1-d: o += votes[k]; so.add(k)
        elif v <= d: m += votes[k]; sm.add(k)
    return (o, set(so), m, set(sm))

if __name__ == '__main__':
    print time.asctime()
    print fullrecalc()
    print
    print "Prob Obama McCain"
    csm = set(); cso = set()
    for k in reversed((.5, .2, .15, .1, .05, .02, .01,.005,.002,.001)):
        o, so, m, sm = calls(k)
        if o or m:
            k = 100 * k 
            if k >= 1: sk = "%3d" % k
            else: sk = "%3.1f" % k
            print "%s%% %5d %6d" % (sk, o, m)
            if so - cso:
                print "\t Obama:", " ".join(sorted(so - cso))
                cso |= so
            if sm - csm:
                print "\tMcCain:", " ".join(sorted(sm - csm))
                csm |= sm